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Carl Zeiss Meditec AG Deep Dive Q&A | China and APAC Market Insights

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Carl Zeiss Meditec AG Deep Dive: Key Takeaways

Q&A with Carl Zeiss Meditec AG’s Head of Investor Relations, Sebastian Frericks

China Market and Recovery Expectations

Update on China’s Refractive Market and Recovery Expectations for 2024

Market Context: Carl Zeiss Meditec remains the leading player in China’s refractive laser surgery market, having experienced over a decade of growth at a CAGR exceeding 20%. However, since China’s reopening post-COVID in 2023, the market has faced challenges, including a shift to lower-cost procedures and reduced patient traffic. Utilization rates for installed laser systems declined in the high single digits during late 2024.

Seasonality: The refractive business is seasonal, with peaks during Lunar New Year (January-February) and the summer vacation period (July-August).

Outlook: A turnaround is expected in the second half of fiscal year 2024/25 with the rollout of the VisuMax 800, an advanced refractive laser platform offering faster and more precise procedures. Despite the current cautious macroeconomic environment, strong indications of clinic demand point to potential growth in late 2025.

Trends in Downtrading from SMILE to LASIK in China

Observations on Shifts in Procedure Preferences:

  • Market Shift: The weak consumer environment has shifted preferences from the minimally invasive SMILE therapy to less expensive LASIK procedures. Previously, SMILE accounted for 80% of treatments, but this mix has shifted to 65-70% SMILE and 30-35% LASIK.
  • Revenue Impact: This mix change has significantly impacted revenue, as SMILE procedures generate higher margins.
  • Strategic Response: The upcoming VisuMax 800 platform aims to improve the mix by introducing higher-value consumables and addressing the changing consumer landscape.

Impact of Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) on IOL Volumes

How Has VBP Affected the Intraocular Lens (IOL) Business?

  • VBP Rollout: The Chinese government’s volume-based procurement (VBP) system has lowered intraocular lens prices, resulting in significant price reductions across the value chain. While this has pressured margins, volume increases have partially offset the revenue impact.
  • Long-Term Opportunity: With an ageing population and high cataract prevalence, the Chinese market for IOLs has substantial untapped potential. The company expects affordability improvements to drive long-term growth.

APAC (Excluding China) Performance

Market Dynamics in APAC

Regional Highlights: Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, shows strong growth in refractive laser and cataract procedures.

India: Economic growth and wealth creation are expected to significantly expand the middle-class market, increasing demand for elective procedures. The company has been directly present in India for over 30 years and is optimistic about its long-term potential.

Japan: Carl Zeiss Meditec is preparing to expand its product portfolio in Japan, including refractive and IOL solutions, which are expected to contribute significantly in the coming years.

Strategic Outlook and Growth Potential

  • Innovation: The VisuMax 800 and multifocal intraocular lenses are key drivers for future growth, addressing refractive and cataract markets with advanced solutions.
  • Global Market: Expansion into underpenetrated markets like the US, leveraging FDA approvals for IOLs, positions the company for significant growth in the next decade.
  • Operational Efficiencies: The modern production facility in Guangzhou, China, provides cost advantages and improves competitiveness in the Chinese market.

Conclusion

Sebastian Frericks highlights Carl Zeiss Meditec AG’s resilience amid market challenges, emphasizing the company’s strategic positioning, leadership in innovation, and long-term growth potential across global markets. Despite short-term headwinds in China, the company remains optimistic about recovery and expansion opportunities driven by advanced technologies and strong market presence.

Questions
  • What is your update on China’s refractive market and recovery expectations for 2024?
  • What trends are you seeing in downtrading from SMILE to LASIK in China?
  • How has the VBP roll-out in China impacted IOL volumes?
  • How is APAC (excluding China) performing, and which markets/business areas are strongest?
Resources
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Sebastian Frericks
Head IR | Carl Zeiss Meditec AG

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Thu Anh Klimpke
IR | Carl Zeiss Meditec AG

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